Twitter thread on the Pacific/NW heat wave from Bob Henson (@bhensonweather):
The building PacNW/SW Canada heat wave is not just a grave public health threat. I think it'll have a profound effect on the collective psyche of the region, and just maybe on climate change awareness. 1/7
Multiple models have been going bonkers w/this one. Official forecasts are now similarly eye-popping.
All-time hi in Portland: 107F All-time highest daily low: 74F Sun/Sun nite fcst: 111/77
All-time hi in Seattle: 103F All-time highest daily low: 71F Mon fcst: 74/108 2/7
These margins of 3-5F are well above general warming of ~2F in the last century.
There's increasing evidence that hot extremes will rise more rapidly than average temps as our climate warms. 3/7
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/13/jcli-d-19-0887.1.xml
This will also be a protracted heat wave, especially over the interior of the Pac NW/SW Canada. Jet-stream contortions may be leading to more "stuck" weather patterns in summer as climate change unfolds. 4/7
https://twitter.com/MichaelEMann/status/1405605464478527489
It's way off base to frame this event as "natural variability". This brilliant thread from @ClimateOfGavin explains why. 5/7
https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin/status/1408416536109404165
Attribution studies can simulate recent events in climate models + estimate how much climate change contributed to them. Several such events have been deemed essentially impossible without climate change in the mix. 6/7
https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/explaining-extreme-events-from-a-climate-perspective/
I've no doubt there will be several such attribution studies on the Pac NW/SW Canada heat wave in coming months. I'll be shocked if human-caused global warming isn't heavily implicated.
For now, if you're in the affected area, please take care and stay safe as best you can. 7/7